Hurricane Isabelle

[Chichiri's Girl]

They cancled school tomorrow and our still deciding to close it on friday...which is pretty screwed seeing how It won't hit us till in the late afternoon when were out of school anyway..and I was gonna cook in home ect tomorrow too. *damn* Yeah well I'm not scared much even tho it's gonna come close to me. I mean yeah so what? Electricity wmight go out. Personally I like walking around in the dark with a flashlight. I doubt will be hit [b]that[/b] hard. Of course my backyard is full of trees....yeah man I was really looking foward to go swim in the streets...(chuckles)....whatever man, as long as schools out it's all good...

[Guest rich]

I live in Australia so yup no hurricane Isabelle for me,hehe , unless it wants to come all the way over here to pick on me,
which it better not!

[Guest RPG&BattleKing]

Oh snap. The anticipation is mounting. I can feel it. The storm will hit in a few hours and there are already trees falling. Im goint to shut my computer don now. I hope none of you guys are hurt. This website wont be the same without some of you...

[Xaru Silverfire]

[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by Chaos [/i]
[B]Rofl, you bunch of pansies. You're scared of a category two? LOL, punks. Try a four or five. And then put a major river right in your back yard and get thirteen feet below sea level at the highest point, and be in a port city.

Then have the ground, which is already swampy and loose, so watered down that after a whole day of being in the sun, it's still half an inch submerged.

Then we'll talk.

Until that happens, have fun in the little rainstorm.

[Don't touch downed power lines. I know it sounds common sense, but really people. Be careful if your electricty goes out. I've seen what happens when you get careless. So, be safe, bring the pets inside, check on baby brother/sister and talk to grandma. Also, if your area floods, resist the urge to swim. Trust me on that.] [/B][/QUOTE]

Basically, the hurricane [i]is[/i] a rainstorm. But really, unless you live in a tin house with no floor, you?re safe. Like the repetitive news people said, board up your windows, and get a hurricane kit. After that, sit down on the couch and play some chess or monopoly. Get the little ones a gameboy(with a light) and they'll shut up. :)

Isabel now is a "threat" only to cause heavy rains/floods, strong winds, loud noises, and power outs. Houses getting thrown, no. There has been [i]snowstorms[/i] worse than Isabel. I remember when I was 6 a huge snowstorm. I think it went pretty much up the East Coast from North Carolina. That storm did more damage than Isabel will do. Unless by some miraculous happening, a sunspot shoots its energy directly on Isabel and it becomes a category 5.... Which is impossible .-_-

~Xaru

[Genkai]

Man, we got SCHOOL OFF TOMORROW! Yeah Philly being slightly in the way! We have a tad of drizzle and some wind.... XD As long as we don't lose power tomorrow, I'm excited!

[Epitome]

Okay nvm, this is the dumbest thing ever. Meteorologists need to learn hot to predict weather. They said 70-80 this morning, now its only 30. Ive realized now that Chaos was right. This is one of the lamest "hurricanes" Ive heard of. Im literally sitting outside, on my patio, using my dads laptop to talk. (theres a cover over the patio so it doesnt get wet ^_^) But anyways, I have declared this a state of ignorance, instead of emergency. And to everyone in North Carolina, I only feel sorry for you because you did have that high amout of winds.

[Chaos]

See? All must respect the guy that lives right in the path of every pimple [aka hurricane/tropical storm/tropical depression] on this hemisphere on Earth.

-_-

By the way, Xaru, were you trying to diss on me? O_o;;; If so, then you failed...miserably.

If, though, you were agreeing, then you passed with flying colors. =X

[pbfrontmanvdp]

LoL i live in NJ and i didnt even have my night classes today at my University. I dont care i seriously didnt want to have classes today and i might not even have any on Friday as well. Anyway this isnt even that bad of a Hurrican i basically have been tracking this hurricane on the weather channel for about a week now. As for N.C. there friggen lucky that it wasnt a categorie 5 when it hit landfall. I do feel sry for the beach erosion that is happening everywhere on the east coast (espically N.C.). Well as long as it goes at a steady 18 mph like it has been so far, it wont be as bad as they predicted.

[Chichiri's Girl]

I had today and I'm gonna have tomorrow off. All we've gotten is a little rain. My school board is weak....*shakes head sadly* At least I get a 4 day weekend....But my sadist math teacher writes all the frigen homework for the week on the board a week before so I have frigen homework to! Grrrr....I was kinda lookin foward to the power being out and having to use flashlights(don't ask why)...So this storm is abit of a letdown for me...*sighs then walks away mumbling something about her 106th post*

[GrimmFang]

I live in western Pennsylvania and right now the winds are blowing like crazy. I am pretty sure they said it would get worse before it got better. Doesn't bother me though nothing exciting ever happens so this is kind of exhilarating.

[Harry]

[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by Hataki Vash [/i]
[B]Okay nvm, this is the dumbest thing ever. Meteorologists need to learn hot to predict weather. They said 70-80 this morning, now its only 30. Ive realized now that Chaos was right. This is one of the lamest "hurricanes" Ive heard of. Im literally sitting outside, on my patio, using my dads laptop to talk. (theres a cover over the patio so it doesnt get wet ^_^) But anyways, I have declared this a state of ignorance, instead of emergency. And to everyone in North Carolina, I only feel sorry for you because you did have that high amout of winds. [/B][/QUOTE]
Considering all they have to go on is the chaos theory that's about as good as they can get.

[Chaos]

Weather patterns are basically assumptions of the chaos theory, Harry. Therefor, when you look at that little radar, that is what they expect. How can you also, too, know that next time you walk outside your house a brick won't fall on your head and kill you? You can't.

"From the first four lessons, you have learned that in a chaotic system, using the laws of physics to make precise long-term predictions is impossible, even in theory. Making long-term predictions to any degree of precision at all would require giving the initial conditions to infinite precision.

At the time of its discovery, the phenomenon of chaotic motion was considered a mathematical oddity. In the decades since then, physicists have come to discover that chaotic behavior is much more widespread, and may even be the norm in the universe.

One of the most important discoveries was made in 1963, by the meteorologist Edward Lorenz, who wrote a basic mathematical software program to study a simplified model of the weather. Specifically Lorenz studied a primitive model of how an air current would rise and fall while being heated by the sun.

Lorenz's computer code contained the mathematical equations which governed the flow the air currents. Since computer code is truly deterministic, Lorentz expected that by inputing the same initial values, he would get exactly the same result when he ran the program.

Lorenz was surprised to find, however, that when he input what he believed were the same initial values, he got a drastically different result each time. By examining more closely, he realized that he was not actually inputing the same initial values each time, but ones which were slightly different from each other. He did not notice the initial values for each run were different because the difference was incredibly small, so small as to be considered microscopic and insignificant by usual standards.

The mathematics inside Lorenz's model of atmospheric currents was widely studied in the 1970's. Gradually it came to be known that even the smallest imaginable discrepancy between two sets of initial conditions would always result in a huge discrepancy at later or earlier times, the hallmark of a chaotic system, of course.

Scientists now believe that like Lorenz's simple computer model of air currents, the weather as a whole is a chaotic system. This means that in order to make long-term weather forecasts with any degree of accuracy at all, it would be necessary to take an infinite number of measurements.

Even if it were possible to fill the entire atmosphere of the earth with an enormous array of measuring instruments---in this case thermometers, wind gauges, and barometers---uncertainty in the initial conditions would arise from the minute variations in measured values between each set of instruments in the array.

Because the atmosphere is chaotic, these uncertainties, no matter how small, would eventually overwhelm any calculations and defeat the accuracy of the forecast. This principle is sometimes called the "Butterfly Effect." In terms of weather forecasts, the "Butterfly Effect" refers to the idea that whether or not a butterfly flaps its wings in a certain part of the world can make the difference in whether or not a storm arises one year later on the other side of the world.

Because of the "Butterfly Effect," it is now accepted that weather forecasts can be accurate only in the short-term, and that long-term forecasts, even made with the most sophisticated computer methods imaginable, will always be no better than guesses.

Thus the presence of chaotic systems in nature seems to place a limit on our ability to apply deterministic physical laws to predict motions with any degree of certainty. The discovery of chaos seems to imply that randomness lurks at the core of any deterministic model of the universe.

Because of this fact, some scientists have begun to question whether or not it is meaningful at all to say that the universe is deterministic in its behavior. This is an open question which may be partially answered as science learns more about how chaotic systems operate.

One of the most interesting issues in the study of chaotic systems is whether or not the presence of chaos may actually produce ordered structures and patterns on a larger scale.

Some scientists have speculated that the presence of chaos---that is, randomness operating through the deterministic laws of physics on a microscopic level---may actually be necessary for larger scale physical patterns to arise.

Recently, some scientists have come to believe that the presence of chaos in physics is what gives the universe its "arrow of time," the irreversible flow from the past to the future. As the study of chaos in physics enters its second century, the issue of whether the universe is truly deterministic is still an open question, and it will undoubtedly remain so, even as we come to understand more and more about the dynamics of chaotic systems."

-http://order.ph.utexas.edu/chaos/index.html

[img]http://www.duke.edu/~mjd/chaos/tri1.jpe[/img]

[img]http://www.duke.edu/~mjd/chaos/tri2.jpe[/img]

[img]http://www.duke.edu/~mjd/chaos/tri3.jpe[/img]

[img]http://www.duke.edu/~mjd/chaos/tri4.jpe[/img]


Therefor, random patterns interact in ways which resemble ripples in waves; never the same, but similar. Thus, short-to-medium predictions of the weather, are possible.

[Adam]

PS - Madam Isabel was responsible for our server problems earlier today.

[Syk3]

Hurricane Isabel went past my area on Thursday, and by the next day it had completely blown over and was suny without a cloud in the sky.

All day Thursday there was a lot of really strong wind, as well as rain, so they closed school on both Thursday and Friday just to be safe. My teachers gave us extra homework in case school was closed, yay, and when I got home I was put to work to try to get all of the outside furniture into the house on Wednesday. Thursday night, I was forced to bring a sleeping bag into my parents room and sleep there because of my room being close to all of the trees which could possibly blow over.

The next morning, we luckily sustained minor damage. No trees fell down, save a small branch in the front yard, we had a small cut in one of the screens of our gazeba, and the house is on sort of a hill which prevented flooding from being an issue. We didn't have many electricity problems, either, due to the fact that our power lines are underground, and when it would go out, it would only be for one second at a time.

So yeah, we got hit, but it wasn't anything major in our neighborhood.

[Harry]

[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by Chaos [/i]
[B]

Therefor, random patterns interact in ways which resemble ripples in waves; never the same, but similar. Thus, short-to-medium predictions of the weather, are possible. [/B][/QUOTE]
Yes, but they're not always a 100% accurate and that's what the person I replied to was expecting them to be.

[Chaos]

Quite. And as I told Vash in AIM, the forecasters predict the worst possible scenario.

[Kanariya]

I was just hit by the hurricane. Good thing my mom had bought a flashlight, because it hit me Thursday. I knew the power would go out, and it did. I wasn't really scared.

The next day a big branch had hit my house, and one fell across my backyard. What a big mess. Well anyway, the hurricane I wasn't really scared of. My family and I were prepared for the storm to hit, and the power came back around 6:30 in the evening, which I was surprised about. My best friend still has no power, and I have been using electricity A BUNCH since the power came back. I'm so glad my house wasn't really damaged.