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Which new generation systems will fail?


Morpheus
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[size=2][color=Black]I don't think any of the systems will [i]fail[/i], but surely there's going to be one system that gets walked all over and one system that stands out above the rest(regardless of wether it actually is the best).

All of the systems are going to have their strengths and weaknesses, because all of them seem to be gong in their own direction this time. Microsoft are pushing their whole hard drive and more power thing and I'm sure X-Box 2 Live(whatever) is going to be the main selling point this time. Sony with their Blu-Ray discs, some of the games are going to be absolutely freaking huge and theres going to be no need to save on disc space with low resolution crappy textures. And Lastly, Nintendo have been reported to have scrapped the A and B buttons(almost a trademark, really) and the D-Pad, I don't know what the hell is up with that.

But the X-Box 2 will cost a very pretty penny I imagine, Microsoft can't afford to make it cheaper this time around, or else they'll be losing even more money than they did with the X-Box. But reportedly there's going to be two versions, Hard Drive and no, but what will the people with no hard drive do with all that custom content from Live? Memory Cards are a bit bothersome when you have more then two or three.
Sony seem to be the only one that is marketing it right, PS3 is going to have a lot of power, possibly easier to develop for, and the huge Blu-Ray discs. But with all the space the developers are given, will they actually use it? Not even San Andreas could be cut into two discs.
Revolution, who knows? Assuming Nintendo really have scrapped A and B and the D-Pad then they're either backing themselves into a corner or making a console so good nobody will want to do anythng for the others. The D-Pad has become something of a staple in most games, using it to switch items quickly, bring up sub-menus and other things, it's going to be tough without it. but just because they've scrapped the A and B buttons, it doesn't mean they've scrapped buttons altogether. Perhaps Nintendo are just updating their image and bringing it into a new generation, putting another Analog stick where the D-Pad would be... Maybe...

As for the handhelds, I think the jury is out on that one. Nintendo have put down every opponent before them, but there's really been nothing like the PSP(never been anything like the DS, either). But I'm not judging the PSP and the DS, I'm waiting for the next Gameboy, Nintendo better have something special up their sleeves for this battle.[/color][/size]
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It's official. The big wigs at Nintendo are freebasing coke.
I can understand if they're ditching the A and B buttons. As long as I can figure out which of their new buttons can jump, and which attacks, I'll be happy. But the D-pad? Don't they realize there are people out there like me who cannot use the analog stick in a menu to save their lives? I also suppose Nintendo is giving up on supporting any fighting games. If, for some reason, they do get some fighting games on their next console, I'm sure as hell not playing them. I've never been able to walk, backup or jump properly using an analog or joystick in a fighting game. I [i]need[/i] the D-pad. And heaven forbid Nintendo should release an anthology of old games.
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Maybe They are Making it analog and ditch the pad. they could make it only go 4 ways. You have to remember that nintendo always makes their analogs with notches so that you can get directions easily. and SSBM was pretty forgiving on the analog side.
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[color=#811C3A]The next generation is just another example of how Nintendo and the other companies are diverging. Nintendo isn't freebasing anything; they're just trying to make Revolution live up to its name. Don't assume that you won't be able to play fighting games on their next home console simply due to the lack of a D-Pad; bear in mind that Nintendo are not necessarily replacing it with "another stick". I guarantee, they are working on some unique control input technologies for Revolution.

Anyway, I have a simple answer to your question. The answer is [i]none[/i].

I don't think that any of the next generation systems will "fail". The market is now large enough to accommodate a myriad of competitors on various fronts.

However, PSP perpetuates some slightly nasty industry trends (focus on visuals and existing gameplay ideas, pushing up development costs, software penetration issues). However, I don't think PSP itself will fail -- but it will put pressure on the forces that are on their way to driving a market collapse.

Still, I'll be buying as many of these new systems as I can, I think. The differences in the next generation will be far more apparent than the differences in the current generation (ie: Revolution will be to Xbox 2 and PS3 what DS is to PSP -- that is, it won't seek to directly compete but will instead tread its own path).[/color]
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[SIZE=1]Interesting, most interesting.

Honestly I'm a little sad that Nintendo are retiring the [COLOR=DarkGreen][B]A[/B][/COLOR] and [COLOR=DarkRed][B]B[/B][/COLOR] buttons [Yes I am a bit sad for adding the colours], they've been part of Nintendo so long it seems a shame to lose them. On the other hand I'm completely confident that Nintendo have some radical and yet brilliant alternative to replace them, in all the years I've had Nintendo consoles they've never been a let down once in the controller department [Well I admit the 64's Pad was a bit awkward at times]. As James was saying I do think that each of the more mainstream consoles are going off in different directions in terms of what they'll offer the gamer, whether that will be good or bad we can only wait and see.

I honestly don't think that any of the "Next Gen" consoles will fail, even in Ireland where the Gamecube has been taking an absolute hammering in terms of sales, it still has them. I think that Microsoft may lose some ground if their X-Box 2 console is very expensive, their loses on producing the X-Box gave them an advantage in the field for a while but that seems to be taking it's toll now. As for the Sony PlayStation 3 I think that'll be just what we've always seen from Sony, an improvement on power and graphics [really just a very turbo PS2]. As for the PSP I honestly don't know all that much about it so I can't really make any definite statements, if could do well although the Portable market is very much Nintendo territory.

My own feelings are just simply put: Wait and see... [/SIZE]
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Guest ScirosDarkblade
Well, I think that with systems diverging in terms of design principle, having just one will no longer be ok for quite as many people. I was fine with just the GCN for a while, but if the Revolution is indeed so different from Xbox 2 and PS3 then I'll have no choice but to get Revolution and another console.

But yeah, ditching the cotrol pad is for me ditching [current design] fighting games as well (and I like those games).

I don't think a single system will fail. But I predict the Revolution to have the worst sales. Just a hunch. May be totally wrong.
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[quote name='Morpheus']I think XBox 2 and PSP. The XBox is a commercial failure and the new xbox will cost at least $700. The PSP Is OK but it seems like the N-gage: an all in one that doesn't do the functions as good as other devices. What do you think?[/quote]


The PSP!?

I got my hands on one two days ago (I did work experience in a shop, made friends, this guy's girlfriend imported him one from Japan for Christmas). And believe me, that thing [i]won't[/i] fail.

All SONY needs to worry about is establishing itself within the handheld gaming market and then they're off. Perhaps they won't have quite the same following as the DS (Though me reckons it'll be close), but the PSP won't do a Dreamcast either.

The power of the damn machine was incredible. Even going through the menus was so smooth.

The screen was huge, compared to what I thought it'd be, and the analogue stick was very sharp, and responsive. I played Ridge Racer, and the visuals and sound were incredible.

My only gripes were that the thing was alot bigger than I thought it'd be. It weighed a bit, and the screen was also very sensitive. After 3 days the guy already had about 12 dead pixels.
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The PSP will drop dead. 4 dead pixels a day sounds...bad. Power never made a system live. I mean, look at the nomad. It competed against the original game boy. Not color, not pocket. The giant ORIGINAL. And got it's a** handed to it. because, even though it played genesis games on the go(and I want one) it failed because it was nothing we hadn't seen before. The games were available on a much more powerful, cheaper system(genesis). The PSP has a host of problems, which include, but are not limited to:
-Dead pixels
-Load times
-bad multimedia setups
-Analog "dead spots"
-heavy
-it is possible to shoot out a umd like a disc gun
-Lack of originality
-

You talked of visuals and sound, which are good, but they aren't the game. By todays standards, Super Mario Bros. 3 is horrible, yet it is one of the best games of all time. By contrast, The audio and visuals in NFS: U 2 are wonderful. Yet the game barely fights past mediocrity for it's lackluster sense of speed. A game is about gameplay, which you didn't even mention.

P.S. Is ANYONE willing to truely defend XBox2?
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[COLOR=Navy]I am not sure about the PSP, but I am almost certain that the XBOX 2 will survive.

The reason why I say that are many.

1. The majority of my friends love Halo. Heck one of my friends spend seven hours a day just playing Halo 2 on XBOX Live.

2. Halo is a popular game

3. My friends are all console obsessed. The same friend of mine that spends about seven hours playing Halo 2 also has a PS2, N64, NES, SNES, PC, GCN, and an XBOX. He wants the DS, PSP, and even the new slimmer PS2.

4. Microsoft knows that Halo is popular so it is only available on the PC and XBOX...and nothing else. If you have a crappy computer, but love Halo, you need an XBOX.[/COLOR]
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[QUOTE=Japan_86][COLOR=Navy]I am not sure about the PSP, but I am almost certain that the XBOX 2 will survive.

The reason why I say that are many.

1. The majority of my friends love Halo. Heck one of my friends spend seven hours a day just playing Halo 2 on XBOX Live.

2. Halo is a popular game

3. My friends are all console obsessed. The same friend of mine that spends about seven hours playing Halo 2 also has a PS2, N64, NES, SNES, PC, GCN, and an XBOX. He wants the DS, PSP, and even the new slimmer PS2.

4. Microsoft knows that Halo is popular so it is only available on the PC and XBOX...and nothing else. If you have a crappy computer, but love Halo, you need an XBOX.[/COLOR][/QUOTE]

What on Earth does that have to do with the XBOX 2?

I think that the PSP will suck, BUT, it will do excedingly well in the US because most people who dont know much about video games are all about the Play Station consoles. The DS on the other hand, will sell mainly to major gamers.

The PS3 will, for the same, reason sell a lot. And the same people who bought the DS will buy the Revolution.

The XBOX 2 will pretty much sell to anyone who was a major XBOX fanatic, or just cant live without Halo 3.
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[color=#4B0082]The Xbox did pretty much just ride on Halo's success for a good while after launch, but I doubt Microsoft is going to be able to rely on a Halo 3 to do the same thing for the Xbox 2. Halo 2, from everything I've heard, was a let down for a lot of people, so Halo 3 would have to be pretty dang amazing to pull off the same thing for the Xbox 2.

Because really, I think the reason Halo did so well was because, at the time, there wasn't much else in the console FPS genre that was all that good. So if people already have Halo and/or Halo 2 for their Xbox, and Halo 3 isn't a major step forward, why should they drop $300+ on an Xbox 2 for something that's not much different from what they already have?

As for whether or not the Xbox 2 will ultimately be successful, I have no idea. But I don't think Halo 3 alone will keep it alive by itself.

Oh, and where was it reported that Nintendo is dropping the control cross and A/B buttons for the Revolution? I haven't heard anything about that, and I find it hard to believe that they're going to drop them entirely. I mean, look at the DS; they added a bunch of new input devices, but you've still got all the classic SNES buttons. I figured the Revolution would follow that same principle of keeping the old while adding the new.

Like James though, I don't think any of the new systems will be complete failures. If you look at the current generation of systems, everything but the N-Gage has done well (and like we didn't see that one coming), and so far, I don't see any particular reason why any of the next generation systems won't also do well. There are various reasons you could speculate over as to which might be the most successful, sure, but just because a system isn't on top doesn't mean it's failing.[/color]
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[color=#811C3A]But let's be careful not to cast the PSP in the wrong light too much here. I mean, the dead pixel issue is also a problem on Nintendo DS -- that is to say, on both platforms it's pretty rare. I haven't heard of any mass problems with dead pixels on either platform.

In regard to the other concerns, you can bet that Sony will remedy some of them for release outside Japan (and for future Japanese shipments). The UMD firing thing is a [i]really[/i] serious problem, so I think Sony will have to fix it. If they don't, well...that would simply be crazy. lol

Some of the other areas might be problematic (particularly the music playing features), but in general I think PSP has a pretty good chance of success. But I do believe that a lot of people are overrating it -- it's definitely worth pointing out platforms like Nomad and Sega Game Gear (Game Gear was way ahead of its time, technologically, but that didn't help it defeat Game Boy). PSP will obviously have to be pushed hard to overcome GBA SP (and to a lesser extent, DS). I just wonder how high the volume has to be until Sony can make a profit.[/color]
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I agree with Desbreko. What can H3 do that 1+2 have not already accomplished? Also, Microsoft losing $1 Billion ($1,000,000,000) a year on XBOX Doesn't look good for what they will lose on a more expensive system. I've heard that large batches of Japanese PSPs have had dead pixels or a host of other random problems. Doesn't sound good for sony. I am still wondering, though, how durable the PSP is. I know the screen scratches easily, but I would like to know what happens when you drop it. I could probably throw my DS(or ANY other nintendo console) through a window and not damage it, so I'd like to know how the PSP stands up.
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[color=#811C3A]Who on earth have you been listening to, Morpheus? lol

The PSP screen doesn't scratch particularly easily. In fact, you pretty much need to knife the thing to get some decent scratches in it. The biggest problem with PSP is finger marks.

In addition, Microsoft's loss of money on Xbox is no real indication of whether they'll lose money on Xbox 2.

You have to remember a couple of things. Firstly, Xbox 2 uses new hardware -- chances are, Microsoft might be able to incur a smaller percentage loss on Xbox 2 as a result of new hardware partners. Additionally, much of Microsoft's Xbox losses relate to Xbox Live. Xbox Live isn't exactly a massive success, but it's in a better position now than it was when it began. So, Microsoft will obviously continue it for Xbox 2. By default (due to the number of Xbox Live subscribers already in place), Microsoft will be losing less money on that service.

So, I think they will be in a better position, but that's not to say that they'll suddenly become hugely profitable.[/color]
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I think that the Nitendo DS and PSP will fall. I already know that the DS is out but Look at the peace of crap. That thing is not worth $150's! I tryed using my hands to play that thing buyt after 30 minutes I decided to use that pen thing! I think that the concept of The DS was a good Idea But I'm not going to buy it. It's not worth the price. I Think that the PSP may fall because of the lack of graphics. I think that the PSP's graphics so far remind me of playing a psone game. If I'm goinning to pay $200's for a portabale Psone then forget about it. I do like the fact that you can watch DvD's on there, But If that's the only thing I can do, than again forget about it. I also know that it play's Music Video's but it's not worth $200's for the system. I'm not rich people! I cant just go buy system after system. :flaming:
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[quote name='Inu500']I think that the Nitendo DS and PSP will fall. I already know that the DS is out but Look at the peace of crap. That thing is not worth $150's! I tryed using my hands to play that thing buyt after 30 minutes I decided to use that pen thing! I think that the concept of The DS was a good Idea But I'm not going to buy it. It's not worth the price. I Think that the PSP may fall because of the lack of graphics. I think that the PSP's graphics so far remind me of playing a psone game. If I'm goinning to pay $200's for a portabale Psone then forget about it. I do like the fact that you can watch DvD's on there, But If that's the only thing I can do, than again forget about it. I also know that it play's Music Video's but it's not worth $200's for the system. I'm not rich people! I cant just go buy system after system. :flaming:[/quote]
What were you playing? The "pen thing" is called a stylus, and it's not the only input. You have to understand. Your hand produces this liquid called oil, which has a tendency to stick to surfaces. You see that D-pad? It's there for a reason.

Both handhelds won't fall, It doesn't work like that. The PSP can rival PS2, so I haven't the slightest idea where you got PS1. Have you seen Ridge Racers?

Who said you would buy "system after system"? As far as I know, only 3 handhelds will arrive in the US: PSP, DS, and Gizmundo. All 3 won't survive. one has to be inferior.

As for the XBOX 2, how do you see it surviving? Halo was fun, but no one really cares anymore.

[QUOTE=James][color=#811C3A]Who on earth have you been listening to, Morpheus? lol

The PSP screen doesn't scratch particularly easily. In fact, you pretty much need to knife the thing to get some decent scratches in it. The biggest problem with PSP is finger marks.

In addition, Microsoft's loss of money on Xbox is no real indication of whether they'll lose money on Xbox 2.

You have to remember a couple of things. Firstly, Xbox 2 uses new hardware -- chances are, Microsoft might be able to incur a smaller percentage loss on Xbox 2 as a result of new hardware partners. Additionally, much of Microsoft's Xbox losses relate to Xbox Live. Xbox Live isn't exactly a massive success, but it's in a better position now than it was when it began. So, Microsoft will obviously continue it for Xbox 2. By default (due to the number of Xbox Live subscribers already in place), Microsoft will be losing less money on that service.

So, I think they will be in a better position, but that's not to say that they'll suddenly become hugely profitable.[/color][/QUOTE]

Do you know what Microsoft's Dev kit for XBOX 2 is? A high power, $1,500 Mac G5. I don't see them cutting losses with that kind of money.
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[QUOTE]Earlier this week, the respected Japanese business magazine [url="http://dw.diamond.ne.jp/index.shtml"]Shuukan Diamond[/url] reported in its 2005 Preview Edition that the Nintendo Revolution Controller will not feature a directional pad or A and B buttons.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]None of the magazine's claims were substantiated by Nintendo, but given the publication's track record of accurate business reporting since 1913, we'd be surprised if Diamond's claims turned out to be false.[/QUOTE] - From [url="http://cube.ign.com"]IGNCube[/url]

As for Xbox 2 and Halo 3, we all know it doesn't matter how good the game is. Microsoft are going to hype the hell out of it as though it's the second coming of Jesus and MS fanboys and casual gamers will lap up every crappy advertisement and catchy slogan they see, it's almost inevitable.

The Xbox 2 dev kit is a Mac? What the hell? And Des, what the hell is the Gizmundo?
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[QUOTE=Morpheus]
Do you know what Microsoft's Dev kit for XBOX 2 is? A high power, $1,500 Mac G5. I don't see them cutting losses with that kind of money.[/QUOTE]

[color=#811C3A]Erm, where did you get that information from? lol

A Mac G5 isn't the "development kit". Do you know what an SDK consists of?

Right now, developers won't be operating from the hardware itself -- they'll be using emulators based on performance targets/benchmarks for Xenon.

Bear in mind that these developers [i]already[/i] have high-end computers -- most of them are using SGi workstations, which are far more expensive than a $1,500 Mac G5. If they only needed a G5, they'd be pretty happy -- the workstations that developers use generally cost upwards of $10,000USD and carry multiple processors.

[i]So[/i], the whole Mac G5 thing is erroneous for a variety of reasons there.

Secondly, the workstation itself isn't what contributes to the ultimate cost -- many developers will use the same workstations for a variety of platforms. What matters is the SDK itself and how complicated the hardware and middleware tools are. I doubt that Xenon/Xbox 2 will feature a difficult toolset, considering that the first generation Xbox was driven by well-known components (like Direct X, for example). The architecture will probably be easier for developers to grasp, rather than tougher.

And sure, Halo is the big seller on Xbox. But don't assume that Xbox relies on that one game. lol

Xenon's success will be centered around the continued rollout of Xbox Live and, to a lesser extent, a new version of Xbox Live that may feature further entertainment features.[/color]
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Man, there's some weird, totally wrong information in here... lol. Sometimes I wonder what websites people visit when they read about games.

I don't think any of them will fail, in terms of next gen consoles... However, one will always have to be in third place. At this point, I would figure it would be Nintendo, but it's possible things could change by then. It depends on what reason, if there even is one, they're calling this thing "revolution" and whether or not they keep pushing 3rd party relations. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt since the GCN was conceptualized and launched under Yamauchi... I think Iwata has been a nice breath of fresh air, overall, and I think some things may be different since this is his first launch while being in charge.

However, if the Microsoft rumors on Xenon prove true, I think they'll be shooting themselves in the foot. It's well known that the original Xbox was planned to be a media center of sorts, a set top box. This all fell apart when companies said they wouldn't make games for something like that. But now that MS has a rather large foothold in the market, they might feel like that sort of thing may be feasible at this point.

Gamespot recently reported on their rumor control page about MS wanting to do three separate versions of Xenon. A normal one, one with a hard drive and a PC version. I think this, if it even happens or is true, really coincides with their past ideas. Splitting up their own market like that could really hurt them and if they go along with that plan, I really can't see them out on top.

At the same time, they're supposedly launching sometime in 2005, quite a bit of time before the other two tentative system launch dates. Who knows.

As for the PSP, I don't care about it personally... but I think it will do well. Nintendo owned nearly 90% of the market with the Game Boy line and killed off many competitors, even if they had great games and more powerful hardware. Sony has its work cut out for it and I don't know that large amounts of flash are enough to push it ahead.

Personally, I have no real interest in playing PS2-style games on the road... the reports of nearly 15 to 20 second load times for certain games is very disheartening and I don't know why anyone would buy movies on discs that couldn't be read by a single other thing. I have other issues with it, but I have issues with the DS and whatever else too.

Who really knows what will happen.
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[quote name='Morpheus']I think XBox 2 and PSP. The XBox is a commercial failure and the new xbox will cost at least $700. The PSP Is OK but it seems like the N-gage: an all in one that doesn't do the functions as good as other devices. What do you think?[/quote]

Wow...i totally disagree with you. I think the PSP will do awesome. It's owned by Sony, the guys behind the PS2, the biggest console on the market (not the best, just the most popular). The games look cool, the graphics are unbelievable (for a handheld), the price is more than reasonable. C'mon!

As for the Xbox 2. It'll do awesome as well. It's Microsoft! Bill Gates! Smart People! They know how to advertise, they know they can't price it insanely high!

The only system i think might fail is the next n-gage if their will be one (their won't). Not to say the n-gage is doing anything now.

Any of the big consoles will not fail, trust me. Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft; their's no way!

Later.
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Morpheus, no offense, but before you make anymore arguments, please look at this in a business perspective for the [b]general[/b] public, and also get some solid evidence to back your arguments up.

None of the next-gen consoles will fail, I personally feel the 'superpowers' learnt from Dreamcast's failure, and what they need to do. It's just about diversity, but keeping within the same market. For example, the DS and PSP are completely different in layout or features for example; the DS's touch-screen feature - the PSP's music playback feature; But they're both handheld systems.

The competition levels will rise, that's it.
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[QUOTE=Zidargh]Morpheus, no offense, but before you make anymore arguments, please look at this in a business perspective for the [b]general[/b] public, and also get some solid evidence to back your arguments up.

None of the next-gen consoles will fail, I personally feel the 'superpowers' learnt from Dreamcast's failure, and what they need to do. It's just about diversity, but keeping within the same market. For example, the DS and PSP are completely different in layout or features for example; the DS's touch-screen feature - the PSP's music playback feature; But they're both handheld systems.

The competition levels will rise, that's it.[/QUOTE]
I'm saying that the market is growing but as much as the PSP and DS say that they are not competing, they simply are. Sony is competing by making a handheld to fight for market share from Nintendo. Nintendo is coming out with the play-yan, a media device for GBA and DS that plays MP3s and MPEG video off of an sd card. I don't know many people that will drop $340 for 2 handhelds. I'm starting to think that the PSP will survive, if at least on the market strain sony puts by making only a few hundred thousand units. XBOX 2 will fail because of sheer loses. Microsoft either won't sell many because of a high price point, or will take high losses(like XBOX) to get it out there. Their market share means nothing if they put the company at risk.

Here are a few articles:
XBOX
[url]http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3851_927971[/url]
[url]http://www.itworld.com/App/4201/030203xboxlosses/[/url]
[url]http://www.theregister.co.uk/2002/11/15/microsoft_sec_filing_shows_hideous/[/url]

Play-Yan
[url]http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/12/15/news_6115158.html[/url]
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[QUOTE=Morpheus]I'm saying that the market is growing but as much as the PSP and DS say that they are not competing, they simply are. Sony is competing by making a handheld to fight for market share from Nintendo. Nintendo is coming out with the play-yan, a media device for GBA and DS that plays MP3s and MPEG video off of an sd card. I don't know many people that will drop $340 for 2 handhelds. I'm starting to think that the PSP will survive, if at least on the market strain sony puts by making only a few hundred thousand units. XBOX 2 will fail because of sheer loses. Microsoft either won't sell many because of a high price point, or will take high losses(like XBOX) to get it out there. Their market share means nothing if they put the company at risk.

Here are a few articles:
XBOX
[url]http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3851_927971[/url]
[url]http://www.itworld.com/App/4201/030203xboxlosses/[/url]
[url]http://www.theregister.co.uk/2002/11/15/microsoft_sec_filing_shows_hideous/[/url]

Play-Yan
[url]http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/12/15/news_6115158.html[/url][/QUOTE]

Absolutely correct Morpheus. Microsoft is losing so much money on X-Box. In fact, probably the only thing keeping it alive is Bill Gates's personal cash flow. I also agree that X-Box 2 is either going to make or break Microsoft's gaming career, and I'm leaning towards the second choice.
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