The end of the Oil Age?

[Andrew]

Well, I was inspired to come and write this thread based on a discusion I had on Friday afternoon with my lecturer and fellow classmates about what happens to us when our very finite source of oil is finally depleted.

As you may, or may not know, our sources of oil are going to run out fairly soon (anywhere around 30 - 50 years so I've been told) and when that time comes, there'll be no transport (unless we come up with some kind of alternative) we'll have no great means of power (unless we all decide to fully go nuclear) and various other problems will befall us.

My lecturer said that his opinion is that the world will crash. With there being no transport (unless we've got an alternative), food lines between countries will be lost so many people may starve. With there being no large means of power (excluding the nuclear option), our technology is going bye-bye.

I just thought I'd see what my fellow Otaku brethren think about this issue...Plus I'm tired and need sleep. ¬_¬

[Albert Flasher]

[FONT=Times New Roman][COLOR=Sienna]It's fairly obvious that when the oil does run out the world will simply collapse. We're like crack addicts with a dwindling stash. Once we're out we're out and than we slowly (Or quickly) deteriorate into a Mad Max society sans cars.

'Tis said.[/COLOR][/FONT]

[John]

The world won't crash because of that, heh. There's plenty of alternate fuel sources readily available, and when the urgency of the situation becomes something the public can't deny anymore, we'll go to them.

We may not be doing too much about it now, unfortunately, but we're still aware of this a long time coming. You can't really judge the fate of the earth so early in the game. :p

[Albert Flasher]

[QUOTE=John]The world won't crash because of that, heh. There's plenty of alternate fuel sources readily available, and when the urgency of the situation becomes something the public can't deny anymore, we'll go to them.

We may not be doing too much about it now, unfortunately, but we're still aware of this a long time coming. You can't really judge the fate of the earth so early in the game. :p[/QUOTE][FONT=Times New Roman]
[COLOR=Sienna]
What kind of alternate fuel source out there can supply our needs the way Oil can? Our transport etc can't be supplied by electric energy or hydrogen (of yet). We can't survive without oil as it stands. We've gone too far.[/COLOR][/FONT]

[Rhym]

[FONT=Times New Roman][COLOR=DarkSlateGray]Well, there is a solution to both the "our cars need oil" and "our power plants need oil" problems. For the latter, it's like Andrew said: we could go fully nuclear. France has a lot of nuclear power plants and they're doing fine power-wise. There's also renewable energy sources. The Netherlands have a whole bunch of wind turbines, and that helps.

For the former, have we forgotten those commercials on TV right about now? They're for that "Go Yellow" thing, something about using corn oil to fuel cars. It may be more expensive than oil right now (which makes no sense from either an economic or production-wise standpoint), but which is better: shelling out a few extra clams to keep your car running, or having all lanes of fast transport collapse? Plus, it doesn't have to be with corn. I think Venezuela or some other South/Central American country is doing the same sort of thing with sugar cane. I also heard hemp oil can have the same (or maybe even better) effect as corn for fueling cars.

However, there is another problem with running out of oil. Do you realize how many of our modern conveniences are made out of petroleum-based products? Pretty much anything made of plastic is made with petroleum somehow. When oil runs out, so do our iPods, computers, printers, hearing aids, pacemakers, containers... Many, many things.

Thankfully, there are things we can do to conserve oil. Even little things help. For one: turning off the lights in a room when it's not in use. Or switching to lightbulbs that use less energy. But a major thing you can do is [i]recycle.[/i] It takes 70 gallons (or was it barrels?) of oil to make a new aluminum can. It doesn't take nearly that much to reuse an old one.

There's probably some kind of website that gives you helpful tips on how to conserve oil, but if there is, I don't have a link.

P.S. You know what [i]really[/i] sucks? Tungsten, the element that incandescent lightbulbs need to work, is also running out. I think it's going to be depleted in something like 20 or 30 years.[/FONT][/COLOR]

[Delta]

[COLOR=#656446][quote name='Rhym][FONT=Times New Roman][COLOR=DarkSlateGray]P.S. You know what [i]really[/i] sucks? Tungsten, the element that incandescent lightbulbs need to work, is also running out. I think it's going to be depleted in something like 20 or 30 years.[/FONT'][/COLOR][/quote]We can always go for gas discharge tubes and light everything up with neon signs. Groovy.

And yes, our transport system will survive the oil crash. Fully-electric cars have been roving around the streets of Tokyo for quite some time now, and the hybrid technology developed in new car models offer less dependency on gasoline. Given the time it takes for Japan technology to reach the ends of this planet, cars will run on electricity (generated by nuclear plants or what have you) before oil runs out.

You know what else will disappear when we deplete our oil? Jelly shoes. That's right. Better collect 'em now 'cause there won't be anything left in thirty year's time. Again, groovy.[/COLOR]

[Lord Rannos]

[COLOR=DarkRed]I don't think the world will suddenly collapse, because we won't suddenly run out of oil. As we run out, it'll get more expensive to the point where companies can make money selling alternate fuel sources. I'm not going to venture a guess as to what the new fuel source will be, but I'm sure something else will become readily available. Even if it costs more to get fuel than it currently does, because everyone's going to need it.

All the same, depending on how expensive a new power source would be, bicycles and solar panels might become a lot more popular.[/COLOR]

[John]

[quote name='Ziggy Stardust][font=Times New Roman][color=Sienna]What kind of alternate fuel source out there can supply our needs the way Oil can? Our transport etc can't be supplied by electric energy or hydrogen (of yet). We can't survive without oil as it stands. We've gone too far.[/color'][/font][/quote] Of yet? Maybe it can, maybe not. But like I said, we've got time enough, and there [i]will[/i] be people working on this in that time. 30-50 years is quite a while for things to change.

[SunfallE]

[COLOR=DarkOliveGreen]I actually do not agree that oil is going to disappear in the next 30-50 years. The topic that oil is going to run out has been going on for quite some time. Before the first U.S. oil well was drilled in PA in 1859 supplies were limited to a crude oil that oozed to the surface. So naturally it was going to run out as we lacked the ability to drill for it. But it didn?t stop people from issuing statements that we would be doing without within a very short time.

In 1874 it was estimated that only enough U.S. oil remained to keep kerosene lamps burning for four years. A prediction that was far from accurate.

If you follow the history of oil production every time a prediction was not accurate a new prediction was made that moved the ?time? it would happen forward by a few years and then it?s published again in more visible and prestigious sources.

Non-experts persistently predict an oil shortage because they misunderstand petroleum terminology. Oil geologists speak of both reserves and resources. Reserves are only the portion of identified resources and do not include ?resources? that are unknown. If exploration for new sources were not continually sought it is estimated that we would have run out of oil back in 1930.

It?s true that oil is not a renewable source of energy, but so far exploration is finding oil at a rate much faster than we can pump it out of the ground. In 1920 the U.S. Geological Survey announced that the world?s total amount of oil was about 60 billion barrels. In 1950 they changed it to 600. From 1970 to 1990 it was changed several times to be between 1,500 to 2,000. In 1994 it was changed to 2,400 to 3,000 billion barrels.

If world oil consumption continues to increase at an average rate of 1.4 percent a year and no further resources are discovered, then the supply will be exhausted around 2056.

But even that is ignoring the fact that there are other unconventional sources of oil. Like Oil shales which hold close to 14,00 billion barrels. 1,500 billion of that is right here in Utah, Colorado and Wyoming. And there?s even more potential resources. The thing is that unconventional sources are more expensive to get to.

But technology is improving all the time. The first American oil drill only reached about 69 feet. Today?s technology allows them to reach depths of 30,000 feet on land and about 9,000 feet in water.

So I wouldn?t get too worked up over the prediction that oil is going to disappear in the next 30-50 years. My grandmother, who is 94 was told the same thing, and my parents as well. Oh and lets not forget that I remember hearing the same prediction just over 20 years ago saying we would run out between 2000-2003. And guess what? Now that oil is not gone like my grandmother, parents and I were told a new prediction has once again been published. It?s more likely that in 30-50 years you will get a new prediction instead of oil actually disappearing. Or prices will increase as they move to using oil resources that are more expensive to get to.[/COLOR]

[KatanaViolet]

Yea but when America wants to drill in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, something's wrong. That's a refuge for animals simply because we've drove them out of every other possible place. And they wanted to drill it for more oil? That makes me sick.
I rely on oil just as much as everyone else, I have a car that I drive to school and work from. But I would much rather the American and Canadian governments to invest that money into finding [I]renewable[/I] resources, so we don't have to start destroying wildlife habitats more than we allready have. There's plenty out there... nuclear, solar power, wind power, hemp (can be used as a fossil fuel), there's no need to destroy a place that we preserved for wildlife. I believe that conflict was resolved, for now... but it's just a point I'm making.
We're getting too damn oil hungry for our own good.

[SunfallE]

[QUOTE=KatanaViolet]Yea but when America wants to drill in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, something's wrong. That's a refuge for animals simply because we've drove them out of every other possible place. And they wanted to drill it for more oil? That makes me sick.
I rely on oil just as much as everyone else, I have a car that I drive to school and work from. But I would much rather the American and Canadian governments to invest that money into finding [I]renewable[/I] resources, so we don't have to start destroying wildlife habitats more than we allready have. There's plenty out there... nuclear, solar power, wind power, hemp (can be used as a fossil fuel), there's no need to destroy a place that we preserved for wildlife. I believe that conflict was resolved, for now... but it's just a point I'm making.
We're getting too damn oil hungry for our own good.[/QUOTE][COLOR=DarkOliveGreen]I agree, in fact some of the oil shale here in Utah is very close to many national parks and there is concern that the vibration from drilling could damage many of the geological features that make the parks so unique. It?s a constant argument since companies want to use the area as a testing ground for finding better ways to extract the oil. I always vote against the request when given a chance since I think the money would be better spent in developing alternate energy sources. Like the diesel fuel that can be make from vegetable oils. You can grow new vegetables every year. So I just don?t see a reason to damage wildlife or parks for a resource that isn?t renewable. [/COLOR]

[Desbreko]

[color=#4B0082]The idea of the world crashing when/if the natural oil wells run dry sounds a lot like people saying similar things about Y2K, if you ask me. It's not as if there aren't [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization][u]alternate ways[/u][/url] of producing oil, other than drilling it out of the ground.

As it becomes less and less cost effective to drill for oil, other sources will become more and more viable. We're already seeing that as less efficient resources, such as tar sands and oil shale, are being exploited as they become cost effective. As the technology improves, and the efficiency of exploiting the natural sources declines, synthetic production of oil will increase.

Or we'll come up with a viable alternative to oil and the whole issue will become moot. But I'm not holding my breath on that one.[/color]

[Gavin]

[SIZE=1]Interesting, most interesting.

As has already been stated by the general consensus, the fact that oil will run out eventually does not mean the end of the world, simply the end of the world's dependency on oil. God above how many people said when the car was first introduced that it would never catch on, how many scientists theorised that a single nuclear explosion could ignite the atmosphere and incinerate the entire planet.

Oil will run out, that is a fact, however given many developed nations are even now not wholly dependant on it for fuel means that in fifty years time when technology is even more advanced we'll be even less dependant if not altogether unnecessary. This "the oil is running out" as Des stated is very reminiscent of Y2K, as I recall a scientific journal published a few months ago that certain plants could be genetically engineered to produce plastic. Synthetic manufacturing practices and alternate fuels, Nuclear Fusion under the [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER][b]ITER[/b][/url] project for instance will eventually become commonplace.

Until we reach the days where Mad Max becomes a reality, there's no point in doing the Chicken Little act and panicking. [/SIZE]