Who Will Win the Presidential Election?

[Mr. Blonde]

So, here's a poll. Who do you think will win?


EDIT: Let me rephrase that:

[B]Who would you vote for?[/B]

[SaiyanPrincessX]

[SIZE="1"]I'm for McCain, and I'm not getting into my reasons why because I'm not discussing politics on here. However I think Obama currently has a better chance of winning. As the polls I've seen seem to show.[/SIZE]

[Raiha]

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"]Ah but remember, polls consistently oversample Democrats and otherwise unoccupied people that still pick up land line phones. Most Republicans never get polled properly because a: they're all busy working and b: Hence they aren't home to pick up the phone anyway. Well it's the same point but it's hard to point out that inconvenient fact when discussing polls.

Oversampling, biased questions, push poll questioning etc, it all happens with polls regardless. But even so, I'm not going to be able to say either way. And as far as who I'm voting for, if you can't surmise that from previous posts I've made on the numerous topics involving the politics of the nation, then alas. You'll just have to guess.[/FONT][/COLOR]

[Lunar]

[COLOR="Sienna"]I know I'm not old enough to vote or have a say for what goes on in the U.S. but...........

I would vote for Obama for several reasons:
He's young and intelligent.
At last night's debate, although McCain took shots at him, Obama still discussed his plan without taking shots at McCain.
He uses wisdom. (important)
And I'm not sure if yoiu've seen it or not.............but rememeber when McCain was talking about Joe???(who's Joe by the way) it was pretty cool 'cause he could've taken shots at McCain that way, but he didn't.
Finally, he has a black family(and he's the first black man to get this far in a presidential campaign) and he's just an awesome person. :catgirl:[/COLOR]

[Retribution]

[font=Arial]I will cast my vote for Obama. I cannot fathom four more years of neo-conservatism. They've had their chance for the past eight years, and they've done a great job at the helm. Time to let lucid, meditative, insightful leadership have a chance.

Obama's polling ahead in all polls at this moment (even Fox), it's just a matter of how large the margin is. However I'm still ridiculously worried for him -- there's no way to really tell how (or if) the Bradley Effect will mangle his chances.[/font]

[Mr. Blonde]

[quote name='Raiha'][COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"]Ah but remember, polls consistently oversample Democrats and otherwise unoccupied people that still pick up land line phones. Most Republicans never get polled properly because a: they're all busy working and b: Hence they aren't home to pick up the phone anyway. Well it's the same point but it's hard to point out that inconvenient fact when discussing polls.

Oversampling, biased questions, push poll questioning etc, it all happens with polls regardless. But even so, I'm not going to be able to say either way. And as far as who I'm voting for, if you can't surmise that from previous posts I've made on the numerous topics involving the politics of the nation, then alas. You'll just have to guess.[/FONT][/COLOR][/QUOTE]

So democrats and independants don't work?

The polls are done among likely voters (people who have a consistant record of voting.)

And even if the polls are slightly off (the NY Times 14% spread), there is no way there would be a complete reversal of the numbers. The average is a 2 or 3 point fluctuation in either direction. I'm not attacking your decision (not this time at least), but denying the poll numbers simply because your guy isn't on top is ridiculous. I think we've had enough bitter Republican brouhaha this election.

[Horendithas]

[COLOR="Indigo"][FONT="Arial"]You can stop trolling the thread Raiha, it's most unbecoming and reflects on you poorly.

I haven't really said a lot in the threads surrounding the upcoming election, but I've had my fill of conservatism so it's no chore to figure out who I'll be voting for. I'm only sorry that being stuck in Utah means my vote won't do much of anything. Since the polls here give the conservatives a clear lead. [/FONT][/COLOR]

[Nerdsy]

[color=deeppink]Bob Barr all the way. Dichotomies suck.[/color]

[TimeChaser]

[quote name='Retribution'][font=Arial]I will cast my vote for Obama. I cannot fathom four more years of neo-conservatism. They've had their chance for the past eight years, and they've done a great job at the helm. Time to let lucid, meditative, insightful leadership have a chance.[/font][/QUOTE]

I'm with you. I don't care if the Republicans had a hissy fit when Pelosi made that speech about their failed policies, because it is true. The ideal of "less goverment" led to the abolishing of many regulatory systems that we needed to keep things from spiraling out of control, like they have.

[eleanor]

[font=trebuchet ms] I'm voting for Obama, and I'm pretty confident that Obama will win, too. Honestly I don't even know why and I don't have any hard facts/reasoning, but I just feel very optimistic about it. It also helps that all the political people here, Dems and Reps, sort of blow me away with their intelligence and they tell me Obama will win. lol

Also it helped that McCain just sort of withered away in the debate last night. The whole "up to 3 rebuttals" thing sort of blew up in his face and he became desperate at times. [/font]

[Allamorph]

[CENTER][IMG]http://www.captainsnes.com/comics/2008-10-16.gif[/IMG][/CENTER]

[FONT=Arial]I'm totally ditching the parties, you guys. Mario 2008.

[I]Represent![/I][/FONT]

[Raiha]

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"][i]I'm sorry to say that I don't think I was trolling. And I believe the evidence supports me when I say that polls consistently over sample those of a more liberal persuasion. It'd be my opinion and right to state that the polls numbers are being cooked by the people putting them out there.

And I never said McCain was my guy. In fact that's ridiculous to assume that the majority of Republicans [and I am not even a Republican] are believing in McCain as the party's guy. We know he's a maverick, we know he will only listen to us because he knows we're the only ones that can put him in a position of power, and we also know that this is ridiculous. He's the right wing base's first choice. Don't think that I'm simply spewing brouhaha. And that "likely voter" thing is just a phrase pollsters use to make themselves feel better. The margins of error, the actual sample sizes and whatnot are not done with an unbiased by the majority of pollsters. Additionally, the number of people who hang up on these calls is never reported, but it's an extremely large group of people.

I used to do polling at my college. I can't even begin to list the number of people that hung up on me when I asked them questions about administrative policy. This election has been fried, roasted, rehashed, and barbecued repeatedly in threads on OB. All I'm saying is that it's pretty clear where most of the people who are actually old enough to vote on OB stand.[/i][/FONT][/COLOR]

[Mr. Blonde]

Post debate polls:

CNN:
Obama:58%
McCain:31%

Politico:
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46%

CBS:
Obama:53%
McCain:22%

Election Polls:

Gallup:
Obama: 49%
McCain:43%

NBC News/Wall Street Journal:
Obama 49%
McCain:43%

And the one I enjoy most of all...

Fox News:
Obama 45%
McCain: 39%

I might consider your argument to have a basis in fact if it was only one poll. But numerous sources all agree.

[Raiha]

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"]So CBS and CNN were just random hiccups?

I don't know to be honest because you haven't included margins of error, sample sizes, and all the pertinent information that goes with those polls that you'd actually need before passing judgment. Don't get me wrong, I don't think ALL polls do this. And in fact the closer we get to the election certain pollsters like Zogby and Gallup start trying to get the numbers more accurate because they reaaaaally don't want another "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline to sink their business into the ground.

But I have trouble agreeing with most polls run by news organizations because the majority of them have nothing to lose; their numbers are already ridiculously low. The same goes for exit polls on election day.[/FONT][/COLOR]

[Mr. Blonde]

[quote name='Raiha'][COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"]So CBS and CNN were just random hiccups?[/FONT][/COLOR][/QUOTE]

No. There are going to be spikes in polls, it happens. But the thing to take away is that all of the spikes are in the same direction. My examples are simply showing that all of the polls agree.

[Boo]

[size=1]Besides, the reliability of polls is clear enough if you see that the numbers range from 22 to 43 percent for McCain. That's a [i]whole[/i] lot of Americans difference. That's like... 3,3 times the difference between McCain and Obama in some polls.

[quote name='Indi'][COLOR="Indigo"][FONT="Arial"]You can stop trolling the thread Raiha, it's most unbecoming and reflects on you poorly.[/FONT][/COLOR][/QUOTE]
I think we read the post differently, because I couldn't find the trolling.[/size]

[Raiha]

[quote name='Katakidoushi']No. That particular group of people just voted in that fashion. My examples are simply showing that all of the polls agree.[/QUOTE]

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"]But not to the degree that would indicate a landslide, and not with consistent figures. Again, we'd need margins of error, etc etc etc before knowing if all the polls are right to agree. Or you know, an actual election.[/FONT][/COLOR]

[Mr. Blonde]

[quote name='Raiha'][COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"]But not to the degree that would indicate a landslide, and not with consistent figures. Again, we'd need margins of error, etc etc etc before knowing if all the polls are right to agree. Or you know, an actual election.[/FONT][/COLOR][/QUOTE]

Who said anything about a landslide. I doubt this will be Roosevelt/Hoover. But it's pretty hard to deny that Obama has a lead over McCain.

And since when have elections carried the voice of the people. To my recollection if Republicans don't like the outcome they just fix the election.

[Raiha]

[quote name='Katakidoushi']And since when have elections carried the voice of the people. To my recollection if Republicans don't like the outcome they just fix the election.[/QUOTE]

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"]Okay you can stop that right now.

Go ask ACORN how they're going to get Mickey Mouse to the polls to vote. Go ask the guy who was registered to vote 70 times in exchange for cigarettes, or the 12 year old girl, or the 16 year old guy who was registered without his consent. It's all over the place. I've been approached several times on the college campus I go to by Obama volunteers who have tried to get me to register Democrat to vote for Obama. Every time I deny them, they tend to get offended, even when I just wander past them with a glazed expression on my face.

[url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mteMQh5zD0c[/url]

And since I've heard the word "landslide" used way too much in various soundbytes from a variety of talking heads, I'm just parroting the media's current Obama slant. You're trying to tell me that after fixing an election, the Republicans were content to not control the media and let the majority of mainstream pundits trample all over Bush's administration instead of just silencing them?[/FONT][/COLOR]

[Mr. Blonde]

First of all, I was being derisive about the fixing elections thing. Only Bush does that.

And ACORN, really? Are you on McCain's payroll or do all of you conservatives just like repeating yourselves over and over and over and over again about things you're completely incorrect about. Of course that has been the staple of the McCain campaign, say a lie loud enough and maybe people will believe it.

Barack was never an ACORN community organizer.

ACORN never hired Obama as a trainer, organizer, or any type of employee.
ACORN was not part of Project Vote, the successful voter registration drive Barack ran in 1992.

As an attorney, Barack represented ACORN in a successful lawsuit alongside the U.S. Department of Justice against the state of Illinois to force state compliance with a federal voting access law.

That is the extent of Obama's relationship with ACORN. This entire race McCain has run a vicious smear campaign because if he focuses on the issues, he loses.

Spreading false accusations and smear is unappealing and it makes you look petty.

[Raiha]

[quote name='Katakidoushi']First of all, I was being derisive about the fixing elections thing. Only Bush does that.

And ACORN, really? Are you on McCain's payroll or do all of you conservatives just like repeating yourselves over and over and over and over again about things you're completely incorrect about. Of course that has been the staple of the McCain campaign, say a lie loud enough and maybe people will believe it.

Barack was never an ACORN community organizer.

ACORN never hired Obama as a trainer, organizer, or any type of employee.
ACORN was not part of Project Vote, the successful voter registration drive Barack ran in 1992.

Spreading false accusations and smear is unappealing and it makes you look petty.[/QUOTE]

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"]Wow. Okay no. I am not on anybody's payroll but my own and you have personally repeated over and over your bias towards Obama and firm unshakable belief in the rightness of the polls you've shown me despite no real data to back it up. Furthermore, Bush is a moot point. He's halfway out the door anyway.

If all you can parrot in return is talking points from Obama's 'fight the smears' website instead of researching for slightly more factual evidence then please kindly refrain from accusing me of being a mindless mouthpiece for the McCain campaign. If I was you would most likely have figured it out right away when I came out unequivocally in favor of McCain and everything he stands for. But since I haven't, and am just questioning your numbers and your lack of appropriate data I can only assume that you feel extremely threatened by someone who doesn't agree with you and can only get angry about it. Go figure.

You shouldn't be calling me petty when you've already accused me of being a Republican when I've never claimed to be one nor identified with the Party, on McCain's payroll when I have yet to find any pro- McCain propaganda in my arsenal of opinions, and jokingly claimed that Bush fixes elections. Well if he fixed the elections, I suppose that does make him less of a moron than was previously believed. [/FONT][/COLOR]

[Boo]

[quote name='Katakidoushi']Spreading false accusations and smear is unappealing and it makes you look petty.[/QUOTE]
[size=1]Would you just stop it? It doesn't make you look very awesome either, fanatically stating that Obama is [strike]going to win[/strike] winning obviously, even though no one told you otherwise. The fact remains that you cannot just rely on polls like that. Full stop.[/size]

[Mr. Blonde]

[quote name='Raiha'][COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"]Wow. Okay no. I am not on anybody's payroll but my own and you have personally repeated over and over your bias towards Obama and firm unshakable belief in the rightness of the polls you've shown me despite no real data to back it up. Furthermore, Bush is a moot point. He's halfway out the door anyway.

If all you can parrot in return is talking points from Obama's 'fight the smears' website instead of researching for slightly more factual evidence then please kindly refrain from accusing me of being a mindless mouthpiece for the McCain campaign. If I was you would most likely have figured it out right away when I came out unequivocally in favor of McCain and everything he stands for. But since I haven't, and am just questioning your numbers and your lack of appropriate data I can only assume that you feel extremely threatened by someone who doesn't agree with you and can only get angry about it. Go figure.

You shouldn't be calling me petty when you've already accused me of being a Republican when I've never claimed to be one nor identified with the Party, on McCain's payroll when I have yet to find any pro- McCain propaganda in my arsenal of opinions, and jokingly claimed that Bush fixes elections. Well if he fixed the elections, I suppose that does make him less of a moron than was previously believed. [/FONT][/COLOR][/QUOTE]
I never said you were a Republican. Maybe you should actually read my posts. Nor did I ever say you were in favor of McCain. I joked about you being on the McCain payroll, but you couldn't have actually believed I was serious.

I did call you a conservative, which I believe is clear. And my comment about Bush was not a negative towards you in anyway, it was a negative towards Bush. And my "petty" comment was not directed towards you directly but more a general "you".

The way you responded dismissing the poll numbers at the beginning of this thread makes you seem like the threatened one. I responded defending the polls and you brought up ACORN out of nowhere. I'd enjoy if we'd stick to the issues and associating Obama campaign and ACORN is not a viable issue.

My argument is that the polls across the board have him ahead. That was the original subject and somehow ACORN got brought into this mess. And you're right I did get that information from the "fight the smears" website and I understand that is bias, so here's another:

[url]http://community.marketwatch.com/groups/us-politics/topics/obama-ties-acorn-no-more[/url]

I am simply saying that I don't think bringing farfetched stories about Ayers or ACORN is what we should be focusing on right now. But it seems that conservatives immediately go back to the "smear safe zone" everytime it's mentioned that Obama leads in this election. I'm not throwing the Keating 5 incident into McCain's face, because it's old news and ridiculous. We need to stay on valid talking points.

I agree that the poll numbers vary and have margins of error but it's the best we have right now, and they generally give us a pretty good outline of the current state of the election.

[quote name='Boo'][size=1]Would you just stop it? It doesn't make you look very awesome either, fanatically stating that Obama is going to win, even though no one told you otherwise. The fact remains that you cannot just rely on polls like that. Full stop.[/size][/QUOTE]

Does spreading smear not make someone look petty? By the way I never once said Obama was going to win. All I stated was the fairly obvious, that he has a lead over McCain at this point in the election. I could understand your doubt in the polling more if it was 1, 2 or even 3 polls but numerous polls (even those released by a conservative news channel) put him ahead. I'm not damning McCain or putting Obama on a pedestal. I just think people need to examine the facts no matter who they support.

[quote name='Boo'][size=1]Besides, the reliability of polls is clear enough if you see that the numbers range from 22 to 43 percent for McCain. That's a [i]whole[/i] lot of Americans difference. That's like... 3,3 times the difference between McCain and Obama in some polls.
[/size][/QUOTE]
So you believed in the polls at the top of this page but now you've lost faith in them?

[Claire]

[FONT="Arial"]Alas, I won't be 18 until next July. The first time I will be able to vote, 2012, will also be my currently 15 year old sister's first time. Not cool.

Assuming I'm still in the country. I have my sights set on Canada, though not for political reasons. (At least not anymore, haha).

BUT if I could vote, I would not vote for McCain. Everyone I've spoken to sees too much of Bush in his policies. I don't foresee that being good for the country. As I can't grasp the potential outcomes of either candidates' separate policies, I'm extremely hesitant to make a decision at all.

I don't want to say I'm for Obama just because people I respect and admire are fully confident in him, or because I think Palin is the most bizarre, inappropriate choice for Vice President possible, or because I hate how smug and eager to interrupt McCain was last night, or because a sizeable portion of his base is calling for Obama's death and are still considered patriotic and loyal.

And I'm not being sarcastic. It would be so easy for me to vote based on things like that, but I feel like how each candidate would handle the most pressing issues should really be the deciding factor.

And I've already stated how I have no idea how either of them will turn out. I just like Obama a whole lot more. So it's a good thing I can't vote.

Oh, and seeing as how a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, and Obama has 277 to McCain's 174, should I be excited?[/FONT]

[Raiha]

[quote name='Clurr'][FONT="Arial"]I don't want to say I'm for Obama just because people I respect and admire are fully confident in him, or because I think Palin is the most bizarre, inappropriate choice for Vice President possible, or because I hate how smug and eager to interrupt McCain was last night, or because a sizeable portion of his base is calling for Obama's death and are still considered patriotic and loyal.
[/FONT][/QUOTE]

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"][FONT="Times New Roman"]Death threats against Obama? This is new. I know that both parties will always have leaping screaming loonies on both ends of the spectrum, but if you can provide concrete evidence to that point I'd be interested in seeing it.

And who is considering people who are advocating any political assassination patriotic? That's insane. I might think Obama is not right for the country but I don't want to see him get shot. I'd rather use the system than a bullet to press my point.[/FONT][/COLOR]