Who Will Win the Presidential Election?

[TimeChaser]

[quote name='ChibiHorsewoman'][color=#9933ff]Okay in that case I say Obama will definately win for sure. I mean the man took time from his campaign to visit his grandma that has to count for something[/color][/QUOTE]

As someone who loves his own grandma, I say it certainly does count for something. ^^

Ironically I'm going to dip back into the Marriage Amendment issue, because I just brought in the mail and we had a "Yes on 2" ad in there (Amendment 2 is the Florida equivalent of Prop 8). I tore the darn thing up and tossed it in the trash. I detest this continued use of the "It will protect children" line. Well, what about the kids of gay parents? It's not going to do anything to protect them.

I just hope my sanity can survive the next week and a half.

[ChibiHorsewoman]

[quote name='TimeChaser']As someone who loves his own grandma, I say it certainly does count for something. ^^

Ironically I'm going to dip back into the Marriage Amendment issue, because I just brought in the mail and we had a "Yes on 2" ad in there (Amendment 2 is the Florida equivalent of Prop 8). I tore the darn thing up and tossed it in the trash. I detest this continued use of the "It will protect children" line. Well, what about the kids of gay parents? It's not going to do anything to protect them.

I just hope my sanity can survive the next week and a half.[/QUOTE]


[color=#9933ff]I know there are plenty of straight parents who do a brillant job of screwing up their children. My ex's (maybe it should be Exes'?) parents are good examples of how Hetero parents can totally mess up a child's life.

It's interesting that these politicians can try to prevent gay marriage with an ammendment to a state constitution, but if anyone tried to make an ammendment to a state constitution banning single parent families there would be a lot more of an uproar. Of course I have to wonder if any politician would try to force something like that.

The scary thing about Prop 8 and Amendment 2 (I hope by now I'm not stepping into the sexuality thread territory and still keeping it in the voting area) is that it could get a lot more conservative Republicans out to vote on the fourth and push McCain's vote up as well just like what happened back in '04 with Bush. I say that because back in 2004 a lot of southern states had propositions and amendments on their lists to keep marriage as solely between a man and a woman (because we know that a same sex couple with a legal document is just too scary- it's like the conservative boogie man or something) and that got a lot of conservatives out to the polls to not only pass that ammendment, but to get Bush re-elected. I just hope the same doesn't happen this time around.

However IMHO there is little chance of history repeating itsself as easily because Senator Obama has had a good record of getting younger and less conservative voters out to the polls and getting younger people interested in politics (I also think that Otakuboards is a good mix of politics too) which could get a lot of liberals and moderates out to the polls and not only make sure that these two ammendments aren't passed (at least in California, I don't know about Florida) but that Obama will win the presidency.[/color]

[James]

[font=franklin gothic medium]I saw half of a documentary last night which looked at the histories of Obama and McCain (with a lot of interviews and behind-the-scenes footage).

I have to finish watching it tonight.

But I must say, in this election America is lucky. Rather than choosing the lesser of two evils, you're able to choose the better of two great candidates.

Despite the individual disagreements people have with one candidate or another, it must be said that both McCain and Obama are incredibly talented and I think both make strong candidates.

I'll have to double-check the name of the documentary; it's well worth watching and it seems quite un-biased.[/font]

[TimeChaser]

[quote name='James'][font=franklin gothic medium]Despite the individual disagreements people have with one candidate or another, it must be said that both McCain and Obama are incredibly talented and I think both make strong candidates.[/font][/QUOTE]

You know, I used to think that I would be OK with another Republican president if it was John McCain, because he was a moderate.

But I have completely lost faith in him for several reasons:
- He tied himself too closely to George "Stay The Course" Bush.
- He has had to pander to the ultra-right-wing constituency (something the entire Republican party has done for too long).
- He has a massive handicap named Sarah Palin, someone who is horribly unqualified to be VP, let alone president if McCain should die in office.

[SunfallE]

[COLOR="RoyalBlue"][FONT="Lucida Sans Unicode"][quote name='James'][font=franklin gothic medium]But I must say, in this election America is lucky. Rather than choosing the lesser of two evils, you're able to choose the better of two great candidates.

Despite the individual disagreements people have with one candidate or another, it must be said that both McCain and Obama are incredibly talented and I think both make strong candidates.[/font][/QUOTE]If only I shared that sentiment. BUT! Some of that comes from living here and seeing the utterly awful disaster we've had to face the past couple of years and most sharply in the past few months.

It's hard to not see it as a lesser of two evils to be honest. However, that won't stop me from going out and voting... and then hoping the one I voted for actually wins. If only I didn't live in what's considered a Red state. I'd love it if my vote actually mattered. :animesigh[/FONT][/COLOR]

[ChibiHorsewoman]

[quote name='James'][font=franklin gothic medium]I saw half of a documentary last night which looked at the histories of Obama and McCain (with a lot of interviews and behind-the-scenes footage).

I have to finish watching it tonight.

But I must say, in this election America is lucky. Rather than choosing the lesser of two evils, you're able to choose the better of two great candidates.

Despite the individual disagreements people have with one candidate or another, it must be said that both McCain and Obama are incredibly talented and I think both make strong candidates.

I'll have to double-check the name of the documentary; it's well worth watching and it seems quite un-biased.[/font][/QUOTE]

[color=#9933ff]I think I may know what documentary you're talking about or have watched a simular one a few months ago. I just remember working an over night shift and watching CNN since there was nothing else on TV. A co-worker and I ended up watching this documentary on both Obama and McCain.

Then last month 20/20 did two separate one hour shows both about Obama and McCain.

I have to agree with you about the candidates this year neither one of them is a bad guy- I just don't happen to agree with most of McCain's policies. It's not that he's evil or vindictive- I just don't want him to be president. His International policies scare the crap out of me and he wants to ban abortion. That in itsself is enough to turn me away. We won't even touch Palin.[/color]

[James]

[quote]If only I shared that sentiment. BUT! Some of that comes from living here and seeing the utterly awful disaster we've had to face the past couple of years and most sharply in the past few months.

It's hard to not see it as a lesser of two evils to be honest. However, that won't stop me from going out and voting... and then hoping the one I voted for actually wins. If only I didn't live in what's considered a Red state. I'd love it if my vote actually mattered. [/quote]

[font=franklin gothic medium]I assume by disaster you're referring to the financial crisis?

I'd only say that Obama and McCain really have nothing to do with that anyway, so it's not really something that colours my view of them as candidates. Both men at different times have stood for improvements to transparency and accountability in different fields, too.

I mean compared to George W. Bush and John Kerry...this election is so different. The election between Bush and Kerry was, in my view, about the lesser of two evils. Whereas I think this election is about the better of two men.[/font]

[quote]I have to agree with you about the candidates this year neither one of them is a bad guy- I just don't happen to agree with most of McCain's policies. It's not that he's evil or vindictive- I just don't want him to be president. His International policies scare the crap out of me and he wants to ban abortion. That in itsself is enough to turn me away.[/quote]

[font=franklin gothic medium]I still have to read the detail from that site I linked to earlier, but I think it's a bit alarmist to say that McCain's foreign policy "scares the crap" out of you.

I mean, McCain is actually extremely well-versed in foreign relations. The reason I say this is to point out that I doubt he'd make any suddenly rash decisions that make no sense.

As I mentioned in another thread, it was partly McCain's thorough criticism of the Bush Administration that led to major changes in tactics within Iraq (which have unquestionably stopped the situation getting far worse).

Also it's worth saying that McCain is generally very well liked overseas, particularly within Asia. Even Europe - which is generally pro-Obama - would be far happier with McCain than Bush. This is because McCain has a better grasp of the nuances of foreign policy and because his foot isn't constantly on the gas pedal.

I'd happily spend more time defending Obama, but there are so few against him here that I haven't had that chance, haha. But I do like to try to dig deeper and learn about what's under the surface. [/font]

[Mr. Blonde]

Well James the John McCain that Europe and Asia seem to like isn't the John McCain that's running for president. One of two things have happened to the man:

1. His Republican advisors have twisted him to fit the "Republican role". He's completely abandoned most stances he took before 2000. They've forced him into a Republican mold, and inevitably he's attempted to pull away from that mold that he (I'm sure regretably) was forced into. The result is the muddled views and policies laid out by John McCain in this election. In doing so he has successfuly alienated both the Independants and the Republicans (who are jumping ship like rats). His Republican cronies also forbad him from taking his first choice for VP (Joe Lieberman) because of his religion (Judaism) and past as a Democrat. He was hosed into picking Sarah Palin and that has even pushed him farther away from all of the bases. Even Conservative talking head Kathleen Parker is calling for Palin's resignation, deeming her unqualified to hold the office. The point being that John McCain's campaign has been one train wreck after another and if that's any indicator as to how he'll run the country, then that's a shame. Also the campaign has completely abandoned talking about policy and has resorted to calling Obama names to scare the American public. Socialist, Marxist, Communist... These are low blows, are simply inaccurate, and not very presidential. I'll quote Barack Obama in saying, "Hope over fear."

2. He's an old man and he doesn't care anymore.

I'd lean towards the first one with a dash of #2.

[James]

[font=franklin gothic medium]There only problem there, Katakidoushi, is that you're ignoring a whole lot of stuff. It's not really fair to suggest that his entire campaign has resorted to name-calling when that ignores a lot of the fundamental policy difference between himself and Obama.

As far as not going with Lieberman due to his religion...I honestly don't know. I'd like to see some evidence for that claim. Nothing I've read or watched about McCain has indicated this at all. And I wouldn't like to assume it of him.

I think you'll find that most candidates (including Obama himself) tend to re-align themselves very slightly when it comes to an election campaign. Most candidates who sit in the center have to move further right or left on some issues and those who sit on the fringes have to move closer to the center.

This is not about "selling out" or anything of the sort; it's about party politics. Both McCain and Obama have to identify where they are weaker and then try to build up ground in those areas.

For McCain, it's the conservatives. He's [i]always[/i] been more centerist, even to the extent that he at one point entirely dismissed people on the far right (including Falwell and others). This is his honest view. He then made up with Falwell and several other prominent conservatives later, primarily because he knew he had to. This doesn't mean his core view has changed, but it means he has to acknowledge that a president must govern for all - not just one group.

Obama is in a similar situation. He had a couple of issues prior to the campaign, one being that he couldn't establish strong support with working-class black people - many (especially in Chicago) were suspicious of him. Some thought he wasn't "black enough". Others thought he was living in a rarified world and that he couldn't possibly understand what it was like to live with few means.

And then he also had issues appealing to working-class white voters, because he had to position himself as someone who didn't just care about poor black people, but who could also understand the needs of the average white voter.

So Obama - like McCain - had to reposition himself in a number of ways in order to achieve this.

This repositioning is far less obvious with Obama, because his experience and strategy is different from McCain.

McCain has an extremely long public career with a lot of voting history. So we already really know all about the areas where he's disagreed with conservatives in the past.

Obama has not been a Senator for long and when he became a U.S. Senator, his advisors carefully kept him away from controversial issues. The less history he built up, the less he'd be attacked for his past voting record. This would allow him to quickly and easily change position or to move one way or the other based on what was needed for the campaign.

So yeah, again I would just say that it's important to recognize the core strengths of both candidates here. I personally believe either one is qualified to be president and each carries their own pros and cons.

As for Sarah Palin...that's a whole other issue. I have concerns about her, but I also think she's been managed poorly during the campaign. I think Palin was a good choice [i]in theory[/i], because she initially helped to bring over the Bush supporters. However, I'd say she's now starting to become a liability. I'm not really sure who McCain should have gone with as his VP pick, though. I suppose there are a few potentials out there.[/font]

[SunfallE]

[COLOR="RoyalBlue"][FONT="Lucida Sans Unicode"][quote name='James'][font=franklin gothic medium]I assume by disaster you're referring to the financial crisis?

I'd only say that Obama and McCain really have nothing to do with that anyway, so it's not really something that colours my view of them as candidates. Both men at different times have stood for improvements to transparency and accountability in different fields, too.

I mean compared to George W. Bush and John Kerry...this election is so different. The election between Bush and Kerry was, in my view, about the lesser of two evils. Whereas I think this election is about the better of two men.[/font][/QUOTE]I mean that and more. In some ways, even though the fear is irrational, people have lost faith in the system or anyone's ability to address the issues that the next president will face.

I'm not going to get into specifics, but it's not that I doubt McCain has the ability to lead, it's that his policies and direction he wishes to go are a path I am not interested in. I have looked into what he has in mind so I'm not just saying this.

I also see Obama as having the unique challenge of over coming some of the unavoidable backlash from being black. So if he wins, it's going to, in some ways, be a battle for him to get acceptance. Again, it's not a capability issue, but that kind of nonsense will play into things, even though I wish it wouldn't.

I won't argue that the last election really was a flop, but at the same time, I'm not overly impressed with our current candidates either. I know quite a few people who are so disgusted with both (though admittedly I think they are poorly informed on the issues) that they won't be voting at all.

I find that a little sad actually. Even if I have doubts, I still like to vote for the one I think will do the best job. Even if I thought it really was a choice between the lesser of two evils, I would still vote. [/FONT][/COLOR]

[Mr. Blonde]

[quote name='James'][font=franklin gothic medium]Obama has not been a Senator for long and when he became a U.S. Senator, his advisors carefully kept him away from controversial issues. The less history he built up, the less he'd be attacked for his past voting record. This would allow him to quickly and easily change position or to move one way or the other based on what was needed for the campaign.

So yeah, again I would just say that it's important to recognize the core strengths of both candidates here. I personally believe either one is qualified to be president and each carries their own pros and cons.[/font][/QUOTE]

First of all let me remind you that Obama voted against the war when it wasn't so popular to do so, after which many politicians called it, "the end of his career."

Further more I'm fully aware of both candidates core strengths. I suppose not being in the country you have a lot less of the day to day to deal with, but being here and seeing the ads and living with the 24 hour news channels constantly pumping out information about these two... it gives the American audience a different feel for the candidates. It's more than John McCain just adapting his views. It's him twisting himself to be something he clearly at one time despised:

"Whatever happened to the guy who once denounced tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans in a time of war as “immoral”? Whatever happened to the guy who wanted to do something about climate change? Not anymore. Senator McCain says he’d vote against a bill he helped to write.

When someone running for election changes his views to satisfy the base of the party, that’s not change, that’s just more of the same Washington game. When Senator McCain was subjected to unconscionable, scurrilous attacks in his 2000 campaign, I called him on the phone to ask what I could do.

And now, some of the very same people and the tactics he once deplored, his campaign now employs. The same campaign that once called for a town hall a week is now launching a low blow a day."
-Ben Smith, Politico


"What contortions has this new John McCain twisted himself into in order to win this election? When asked last year about his stance on abortion, he told a group of supporters, "I do not support Roe vs. Wade. It should be overturned." This statement not only sharply contrasts with what he said back in the 2000 election cycle, but is also at odds with a majority of American public opinion, according to the most recent Harris poll on the subject.

Further, McCain's decision to put the anti-choice, creationist Sarah Palin on his ticket appears to be motivated completely by a political desire to shore up the radical right evangelical base with whom he's been at odds for so long. This is the same woman who claimed in June "that our national leaders are sending (our soldiers) out on a task that is from God."

A part of me is made very sad to write this article. As I've said, my family has followed John's life and career with no absence of pride. If there ever were a Republican we might consider voting for, it would have been my [B]cousin[/B] John.

But, as he continually demonstrates in this campaign, my cousin John is long gone. "Straight talk" has been replaced with "flip-flop." Saddest of all, this is the same man who, when campaigning in 2000, told a crowd of supporters, "I don't think Bill Gates needs a tax cut. I think your parents do."

My parents, John, need some help after the economic destruction Bush has wrought in the last eight years, but it's clear you're not the one who'll give it to us. America's working families no longer recognize you, nor does your own.
-Adam Vaulx Boles

It's more than just flip-flopping on some issues, it's completely changing your stance on who you are as a politician. I think McCain has gotten so desperate to be president that he is now using the same shady tactics (smear and robo-calls) that he denounced 8 years ago. The John McCain of 8 years ago was qualified to be president, the John McCain of 2008, I wouldn't trust to make me a grilled cheese.

[TimeChaser]

Something I'm also not happy about with McCain is his energy policy. He has talked about investing in 45 new nuclear plants. While this may be a quick fix (questionable even then for the time it would take to build all of those), it is not a long-term, environmentally safe solution. There is still no safe way to get rid of nuclear waste, only storage, and we're talking about stuff that has a half-life of 50,000 years.

Plus, right now Bush is doing his best while still in office to quietly pass even more de-regulation that would relax punishment on companies that pollute.

These people have no real understanding of the environment, and plain fact is that many don't even care.

Then there's this whole attacking Obama for being "socialist" and accusing him of wanting to "spread the wealth", which is just more muckraking, paranoia-inducing nonsense.

I watched an Obama rally on TV that was held here in Florida earlier in the week, and his message was positive and hopeful. What he says is that we should get back to that ideal place we were at in the 90s, when everyone was prospering. When the average people are doing well, then they buy more products and services, which stimulates the economy. You have to fix things from the bottom up, not the top down.

EDIT:
I've since learned that building nuclear plants would not be a quick solution, because the entire process to approve them, build them, and get them online takes a minimum of 8 years.